Wednesday, September 9, 2020

DEMONetisation - in my view

        I need not say what demonetisation is, since all of them in India would have got a taste of it. Though I started writing this as soon as demonetisation was announced I couldn't complete it due to lack of time. After quite a long time, I am continuing with this. 

      
       When my friend broke that news for me, saying that all high value currency notes are going to go extinct in the nick of time, and on seeing the news by few 'reputed' channels reporting new currencies to have IC chips which will reveal where the notes are, even if it is hidden several feet beneath earth's surface, I told him that for the first time I appreciate our PM Modi for taking a great step. But soon, as usual, doubts started creeping my mind, whether it is possible, and what could be the cost of installing chips and what could be the value of each currency if so much is spent on such technologies. Soon I added a clause on appreciating Mr Modi with 'if the new currency is going to have all the said features.'  

     Not too late everything came to light, and my opinion completely changed. I became one of the critics and started speaking against demonetisation. I don't think it is even required at this point in time to mention what went wrong because everyone should have understood it. Yet, I thought I will complete what I started.  


    As I expected, and as many people predicted, demonetisation broke the backbone of our economy. When Manmohan Singh, the previous PM, said it is a monumental disaster, and what is going to happen, they were mocking at him. But rest is history, though not for the feeble hearts. "Give me 50 days," became just another jhoomla. Many innocent lives were lost, but why should anyone care as they belong to lesser Gods. From bringing out black money, the greatest achievement became Rahul Gandhi being made to stand in queue. Many were rejoicing just for that reason as they were standing in long queues. We all stood in queue, but none of the black money holders were found to be there.      


      Meanwhile, one of my friends told me the ‘real’ reason why demonetisation was done. He said that his uncle works in the printing field who knows all about printing notes and that the real reason for the sudden declaration of demonetisation was because the printing of new notes was assigned to a Congress party leader and since he started leaking the news about demonetisation Modi had to announce it before everyone exchanged the notes. For his thinking capacity he really believed in it. I really liked the story. But unfortunately for him I felt it's another cooked up story, the reason being, BJP people entrusting Congress guy with such a task seemed too much for me to digest. I told him that how foolish Modi must be to do that, that too when he is working day and night to have a nation without Congress (Congress-mukth Bharat in his own words). Moreover, this is the era of watsapp. How long would it take for the news to spread like wildfire.  Yet not even one person knew it, even after the Congress guy leaked the news. 


            Modi said that it was to create a cashless economy that he did it. But, to make a cashless economy, he could have simply eliminated all high denomination notes for ever. If every office accepts only digital payment and only small denominations up to 100 were to be allowed, even corruption could have been controlled to a greater extent. But then why did he introduce still higher denomination of 2000? Other than for elections, why else would he have introduced it? Why else would he do that? And most importantly, before we even saw the notes it was available with the terrorists.


            As per his declaration, even fuel surcharge was waived off during that period. But I got charged for it. When I enquired they said though he said so, there was no instruction given. I need not wonder how a person could sit on the PM chair and lie so blatantly, cus it’s not just a one-off incident. We can write an epic on the lies starting from 15 lakh on every account. 


       By the way, the reason for demonetisation kept changing colours on a regular basis. If we ask the ardent supporters, even today each one will have a different reason, just like our diverse culture. From curtailing black money to stopping terrorism, reasons were aplenty. On the economic front, few economists blindly supported it with their own theories as usual, while others told what exactly is going to happen. Me being an ordinary guy who has no idea about how economy works, I relied on those who made sense. 

       

     There were many who even said they will quit politics if their reasons were proven wrong. They were all proven wrong, yet neither did they quit nor did anyone ask for it. As a normal person, what I felt was that if demonetisation was a success as they still ‘claim,’ then why hasn't our tax collection increased phenomenally. I have noticed that more than 70% more sellers have started giving bills. There was a time I had to insist on bills. Even after getting a taxed bill I was not sure if the receipts were original those days. But now they themselves have started issuing bills. Even if we keep it at 50% increase, then that means our income generation should have doubled. But it has not happened.  


      Anyway, all the black money came into their kitty. When cooperative banks were not allowed to operate, the bank in which Amith Shah was the director received the greatest amount of demonetised notes. Amith Shah's son's company made a windfall. For me it sounds absurd to think that a company that was not making any profit and all of a sudden made profits in crores and within no time it became bankrupt. And the irony is that the company made all the profits merely by selling seeds when farmers were suiciding. At the end of the day, demonetisation did serve the purpose - they won the ensuing elections by fooling people. I don't know if any one who voted for them still has understood what exactly happened, and will even understand. Maybe after few generations, they might.